A test of the Crosspoll model: suggestions for further development

This report is written by dr. ir. D.A.P. Hooftman and Dr. J.C.M. de Nijs, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Amsterdam.

Gene flow from crops to their wild congeners is attracting much attention, due to the increasing commercialization of transgenic (genetically modified) crops worldwide. Evidence for such gene flow has accumulated over the last decades, including data on gene flow of concrete transgenes.
In 2004, COGEM commissioned a desk top study to analyze the factors influencing crop-wild relatives hybridization rates and to develop a pilot version of a model (Crosspoll model), which would predict hybridization rates originating from transgenic crop sources. The aimed added value of both report and model was an increased insight in the sensitivity of model predictions for (changes in) model parameters. Such insight would enable improved judgement of modeling results of the pertaining, and other models, and aims at arriving at better scientifically motivated and justified risk assessment procedure rules.
The aim of the current report is to evaluate the pilot version of Crosspoll through intensive use. Although the pilot version shows promising results, the authors provide suggestions to improve the framework of the model.